Soft/Governance & Integrity/National Resilience & Crisis Management

National Risk Assessment & Early Warning

The capacity to see shock coming: a standing all-hazards national risk picture, the warning systems built on it and the honesty to publish what the assessment finds.
pending/cap/national-risk-assessment-early-warning
World mean
8.8
of 20 · median 8.0
Range
1–18
middle half 5.0–12.0
Panel SD
±0.28
round 1 ±1.07 — the honest estimate
Leader
18
Japan, United Kingdom, United States

Indicators

The measures seeded for this capability in the framework. They are candidate indicators: no cell in the index has a source document attached to it yet.

Band spread across 197 nations

Frontier 3
Advanced 19
Established 34
Transitional 38
Foundational 53
Nascent 42
Inception 8

All 197 nations

Best first. The score is the mean of the four adjudicators' round-3 integers, rounded to the nearest integer; ±SD is their spread on that cell. Where the spread is three points or more, read the number as a band rather than a value.

#NationRegionScoreBandPanel SD
1 🇯🇵Japan Asia Pacific 18 Frontier ±0.43
2 🇬🇧United Kingdom Europe 18 Frontier ±0.50
3 🇺🇸United States Americas 18 Frontier ±0.83
4 🇦🇺Australia Asia Pacific 17 Advanced ±0.50
5 🇫🇮Finland Europe 17 Advanced ±0.00
6 🇫🇷France Europe 17 Advanced ±0.50
7 🇳🇱Netherlands Europe 17 Advanced ±0.43
8 🇳🇴Norway Europe 17 Advanced ±0.50
9 🇸🇬Singapore Asia Pacific 17 Advanced ±0.00
10 🇰🇷South Korea Asia Pacific 17 Advanced ±0.00
11 🇸🇪Sweden Europe 17 Advanced ±0.50
12 🇨🇭Switzerland Europe 17 Advanced ±0.00
13 🇨🇦Canada Americas 16 Advanced ±0.43
14 🇩🇰Denmark Europe 16 Advanced ±0.43
15 🇩🇪Germany Europe 16 Advanced ±0.71
16 🇳🇿New Zealand Asia Pacific 16 Advanced ±0.43
17 🇹🇼Taiwan Asia Pacific 16 Advanced ±0.43
18 🇦🇹Austria Europe 15 Advanced ±0.00
19 🇧🇪Belgium Europe 15 Advanced ±0.50
20 🇨🇳China Asia Pacific 15 Advanced ±0.50
21 🇮🇸Iceland Europe 15 Advanced ±0.50
22 🇮🇱Israel Middle East 15 Advanced ±0.43
23 🇨🇱Chile Americas 14 Established ±0.43
24 🇨🇿Czechia Europe 14 Established ±0.50
25 🇪🇪Estonia Europe 14 Established ±0.00
26 🇮🇪Ireland Europe 14 Established ±0.43
27 🇮🇹Italy Europe 14 Established ±0.43
28 🇪🇸Spain Europe 14 Established ±0.43
29 🇱🇻Latvia Europe 13 Established ±0.00
30 🇱🇹Lithuania Europe 13 Established ±0.00
31 🇱🇺Luxembourg Europe 13 Established ±0.71
32 🇲🇽Mexico Americas 13 Established ±0.50
33 🇵🇱Poland Europe 13 Established ±0.43
34 🇵🇹Portugal Europe 13 Established ±0.43
35 🇸🇮Slovenia Europe 13 Established ±0.00
36 🇹🇷Türkiye Middle East 13 Established ±0.00
37 🇦🇪United Arab Emirates Middle East 13 Established ±0.43
38 🇧🇩Bangladesh Asia Pacific 12 Established ±0.83
39 🇧🇷Brazil Americas 12 Established ±0.00
40 🇨🇷Costa Rica Americas 12 Established ±0.00
41 🇭🇷Croatia Europe 12 Established ±0.43
42 🇨🇺Cuba Americas 12 Established ±0.87
43 🇬🇷Greece Europe 12 Established ±0.00
44 🇭🇺Hungary Europe 12 Established ±0.00
45 🇮🇳India Asia Pacific 12 Established ±0.71
46 🇮🇩Indonesia Asia Pacific 12 Established ±0.43
47 🇲🇾Malaysia Asia Pacific 12 Established ±0.43
48 🇲🇹Malta Europe 12 Established ±0.43
49 🇵🇭Philippines Asia Pacific 12 Established ±0.43
50 🇷🇴Romania Europe 12 Established ±0.00
51 🇷🇺Russia Europe 12 Established ±0.43
52 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia Middle East 12 Established ±0.50
53 🇸🇰Slovakia Europe 12 Established ±0.43
54 🇹🇭Thailand Asia Pacific 12 Established ±0.00
55 🇺🇦Ukraine Europe 12 Established ±0.00
56 🇻🇳Vietnam Asia Pacific 12 Established ±0.00
57 🇧🇬Bulgaria Europe 11 Transitional ±0.43
58 🇨🇴Colombia Americas 11 Transitional ±0.43
59 🇨🇾Cyprus Middle East 11 Transitional ±0.00
60 🇲🇺Mauritius Africa 11 Transitional ±0.83
61 🇲🇦Morocco Africa 11 Transitional ±0.50
62 🇴🇲Oman Middle East 11 Transitional ±0.50
63 🇶🇦Qatar Middle East 11 Transitional ±0.50
64 🇷🇸Serbia Europe 11 Transitional ±0.43
65 🇿🇦South Africa Africa 11 Transitional ±0.43
66 🇺🇾Uruguay Americas 11 Transitional ±0.00
67 🇦🇷Argentina Americas 10 Transitional ±0.43
68 🇩🇴Dominican Republic Americas 10 Transitional ±0.50
69 🇬🇪Georgia Middle East 10 Transitional ±0.00
70 🇰🇿Kazakhstan Asia Pacific 10 Transitional ±0.43
71 🇱🇮Liechtenstein Europe 10 Transitional ±0.43
72 🇲🇨Monaco Europe 10 Transitional ±0.83
73 🇵🇦Panama Americas 10 Transitional ±0.00
74 🇵🇪Peru Americas 10 Transitional ±0.00
75 🇱🇰Sri Lanka Asia Pacific 10 Transitional ±0.43
76 🇪🇨Ecuador Americas 9 Transitional ±0.00
77 🇪🇬Egypt Africa 9 Transitional ±0.00
78 🇸🇻El Salvador Americas 9 Transitional ±0.00
79 🇫🇯Fiji Asia Pacific 9 Transitional ±0.00
80 🇬🇭Ghana Africa 9 Transitional ±0.00
81 🇬🇹Guatemala Americas 9 Transitional ±0.43
82 🇮🇷Iran Asia Pacific 9 Transitional ±0.43
83 🇯🇲Jamaica Americas 9 Transitional ±0.43
84 🇯🇴Jordan Middle East 9 Transitional ±0.00
85 🇰🇪Kenya Africa 9 Transitional ±0.00
86 🇰🇼Kuwait Middle East 9 Transitional ±0.00
87 🇲🇻Maldives Asia Pacific 9 Transitional ±0.50
88 🇲🇩Moldova Europe 9 Transitional ±0.50
89 🇲🇳Mongolia Asia Pacific 9 Transitional ±0.50
90 🇲🇪Montenegro Europe 9 Transitional ±0.71
91 🇲🇰North Macedonia Europe 9 Transitional ±0.43
92 🇷🇼Rwanda Africa 9 Transitional ±0.00
93 🇹🇹Trinidad & Tobago Americas 9 Transitional ±0.00
94 🇹🇳Tunisia Africa 9 Transitional ±0.50
95 🇦🇱Albania Europe 8 Foundational ±0.43
96 🇦🇲Armenia Middle East 8 Foundational ±0.71
97 🇦🇿Azerbaijan Middle East 8 Foundational ±0.00
98 🇧🇸Bahamas Americas 8 Foundational ±0.00
99 🇧🇭Bahrain Middle East 8 Foundational ±0.43
100 🇧🇧Barbados Americas 8 Foundational ±0.43
101 🇧🇹Bhutan Asia Pacific 8 Foundational ±0.50
102 🇧🇳Brunei Asia Pacific 8 Foundational ±0.43
103 🇭🇳Honduras Americas 8 Foundational ±0.00
104 🇳🇦Namibia Africa 8 Foundational ±0.43
105 🇳🇵Nepal Asia Pacific 8 Foundational ±0.43
106 🇳🇬Nigeria Africa 8 Foundational ±0.00
107 🇵🇰Pakistan Asia Pacific 8 Foundational ±0.43
108 🇵🇾Paraguay Americas 8 Foundational ±0.50
109 🇸🇳Senegal Africa 8 Foundational ±0.43
110 🇹🇿Tanzania Africa 8 Foundational ±0.43
111 🇩🇿Algeria Africa 7 Foundational ±0.43
112 🇦🇩Andorra Europe 7 Foundational ±0.43
113 🇦🇬Antigua & Barbuda Americas 7 Foundational ±0.43
114 🇧🇾Belarus Europe 7 Foundational ±0.83
115 🇧🇿Belize Americas 7 Foundational ±0.00
116 🇧🇴Bolivia Americas 7 Foundational ±0.43
117 🇧🇦Bosnia & Herzegovina Europe 7 Foundational ±0.43
118 🇧🇼Botswana Africa 7 Foundational ±0.00
119 🇨🇻Cabo Verde Africa 7 Foundational ±0.00
120 🇰🇭Cambodia Asia Pacific 7 Foundational ±0.00
121 🇩🇲Dominica Americas 7 Foundational ±0.00
122 🇪🇹Ethiopia Africa 7 Foundational ±0.00
123 🇬🇩Grenada Americas 7 Foundational ±0.43
124 🇰🇬Kyrgyzstan Asia Pacific 7 Foundational ±0.00
125 🇲🇬Madagascar Africa 7 Foundational ±0.43
126 🇲🇿Mozambique Africa 7 Foundational ±0.43
127 🇳🇮Nicaragua Americas 7 Foundational ±0.00
128 🇸🇲San Marino Europe 7 Foundational ±0.43
129 🇸🇨Seychelles Africa 7 Foundational ±0.43
130 🇹🇴Tonga Asia Pacific 7 Foundational ±0.50
131 🇺🇬Uganda Africa 7 Foundational ±0.43
132 🇻🇺Vanuatu Asia Pacific 7 Foundational ±0.43
133 🇿🇲Zambia Africa 7 Foundational ±0.00
134 🇧🇯Benin Africa 6 Foundational ±0.43
135 🇨🇮Côte d'Ivoire Africa 6 Foundational ±0.00
136 🇬🇾Guyana Americas 6 Foundational ±0.00
137 🇮🇶Iraq Middle East 6 Foundational ±0.50
138 🇽🇰Kosovo Europe 6 Foundational ±0.43
139 🇲🇼Malawi Africa 6 Foundational ±0.00
140 🇱🇨Saint Lucia Americas 6 Foundational ±0.00
141 🇻🇨Saint Vincent & Grenadines Americas 6 Foundational ±0.43
142 🇼🇸Samoa Asia Pacific 6 Foundational ±0.00
143 🇸🇱Sierra Leone Africa 6 Foundational ±0.00
144 🇸🇧Solomon Islands Asia Pacific 6 Foundational ±0.00
145 🇹🇯Tajikistan Asia Pacific 6 Foundational ±0.43
146 🇺🇿Uzbekistan Asia Pacific 6 Foundational ±0.43
147 🇿🇼Zimbabwe Africa 6 Foundational ±0.43
148 🇦🇴Angola Africa 5 Nascent ±0.00
149 🇧🇫Burkina Faso Africa 5 Nascent ±0.00
150 🇨🇲Cameroon Africa 5 Nascent ±0.00
151 🇩🇯Djibouti Africa 5 Nascent ±0.43
152 🇸🇿Eswatini Africa 5 Nascent ±0.00
153 🇬🇲Gambia Africa 5 Nascent ±0.00
154 🇰🇮Kiribati Asia Pacific 5 Nascent ±0.43
155 🇱🇦Laos Asia Pacific 5 Nascent ±0.43
156 🇱🇧Lebanon Middle East 5 Nascent ±0.00
157 🇱🇸Lesotho Africa 5 Nascent ±0.43
158 🇲🇱Mali Africa 5 Nascent ±0.43
159 🇲🇭Marshall Islands Asia Pacific 5 Nascent ±0.00
160 🇲🇷Mauritania Africa 5 Nascent ±0.00
161 🇫🇲Micronesia Asia Pacific 5 Nascent ±0.00
162 🇳🇪Niger Africa 5 Nascent ±0.00
163 🇵🇼Palau Asia Pacific 5 Nascent ±0.00
164 🇵🇬Papua New Guinea Asia Pacific 5 Nascent ±0.00
165 🇰🇳Saint Kitts & Nevis Americas 5 Nascent ±0.43
166 🇸🇹São Tomé & Príncipe Africa 5 Nascent ±0.00
167 🇸🇷Suriname Americas 5 Nascent ±0.43
168 🇹🇱Timor-Leste Asia Pacific 5 Nascent ±0.00
169 🇹🇬Togo Africa 5 Nascent ±0.43
170 🇹🇻Tuvalu Asia Pacific 5 Nascent ±0.43
171 🇧🇮Burundi Africa 4 Nascent ±0.00
172 🇰🇲Comoros Africa 4 Nascent ±0.00
173 🇨🇬Congo Africa 4 Nascent ±0.00
174 🇬🇦Gabon Africa 4 Nascent ±0.00
175 🇬🇳Guinea Africa 4 Nascent ±0.00
176 🇱🇷Liberia Africa 4 Nascent ±0.43
177 🇲🇲Myanmar Asia Pacific 4 Nascent ±0.00
178 🇳🇷Nauru Asia Pacific 4 Nascent ±0.43
179 🇰🇵North Korea Asia Pacific 4 Nascent ±0.43
180 🇵🇸Palestine Middle East 4 Nascent ±0.00
181 🇹🇲Turkmenistan Asia Pacific 4 Nascent ±0.43
182 🇻🇪Venezuela Americas 4 Nascent ±0.43
183 🇨🇫Central African Rep. Africa 3 Nascent ±0.50
184 🇹🇩Chad Africa 3 Nascent ±0.43
185 🇨🇩DR Congo Africa 3 Nascent ±0.00
186 🇬🇼Guinea-Bissau Africa 3 Nascent ±0.00
187 🇭🇹Haiti Americas 3 Nascent ±0.00
188 🇱🇾Libya Africa 3 Nascent ±0.00
189 🇸🇴Somalia Africa 3 Nascent ±0.00
190 🇦🇫Afghanistan Asia Pacific 2 Inception ±0.43
191 🇬🇶Equatorial Guinea Africa 2 Inception ±0.00
192 🇪🇷Eritrea Africa 2 Inception ±0.00
193 🇸🇸South Sudan Africa 2 Inception ±0.00
194 🇸🇩Sudan Africa 2 Inception ±0.43
195 🇸🇾Syria Middle East 2 Inception ±0.00
196 🇾🇪Yemen Middle East 2 Inception ±0.43
197 🇻🇦Holy See Europe 1 Inception ±0.50

Others in National Resilience & Crisis Management

CapabilityWorld meanRangeLeader
Crisis Leadership & Coordination8.92–18Finland, Japan, Singapore
Civil Protection & Emergency Management8.92–18Finland, Japan
Social Protection & Household Resilience9.42–18Denmark, Finland, Germany
Recovery, Continuity & Adaptation8.31–18Japan, Netherlands, Singapore